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April 10, 2014


Chances of an El Niño are Fifty/Fifty


Synopsis: While El Niño-neutral conditions are favored for the Northern Hemisphere during the spring of 2014, the chances of an El Niño during the summer of 2014 are better that fifty/fifty.


Discussion: Many computer models predict the development of an El Niño during the summer or fall of 2014.  Despite the consensus of the models, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it might be.  This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecasting skill of the models in the spring.


Information: Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly at the Climate Prediction Center’s web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). The next El Niño diagnostic discussion is scheduled for May 8, 2014.  To receive email notification of it, send an email to and request to be placed on the mailing list.


Source: USA National Weather Service.  Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion [Available in Several Formats in English and Spanish].  April 10, 2014.

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