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July 10, 2014


El Niño Report, July 10, 2014


The chance of an El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and close to 80% during the fall and early winter.


Currently, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive sea surface temperatures (SST) indicates a neutral El Niño status.


Over the last month, no significant changes have occurred in the El Niño forecast, but the majority of the computer models indicated the arrival of a weak-to-moderate El Niño in August that will continue into early 2015.


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion (a downloadable PDF or Word file).  July 10, 2014.

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