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May 15, 2015


El Niño Probability Ungraded to 90 Percent!


There is approximately a 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the summer of 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through to the end 2015!  Many computer models predict El Niño’s strength will increase during the next several months.  Computer forecasts, however, tend to be less robust during the spring, which somewhat limits the confidence in this report.  Therefore, considerable uncertainty remains about how strong this event may become.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for June 1, 2015.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  May 14, 2015.

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