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August 13, 2015


El Niño Report, August 13, 2015


There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.


During July 2015, atmospheric and oceanic features indicated a significant and strengthening El Niño!


All computer models predict El Niño to continue into spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a strong event at its peak in late fall/early winter.  At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for September 10, 2015.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to


Also See:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  August 13, 2015.

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