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December 10, 2015


El Niño Report, December 9, 2015


Most computer models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue for the next three months, followed by weakening and a transition to neutral conditions during the late spring or early summer 2016.  The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged from last month, with the expectation that this El Niño will rank among the three strongest episodes dating back to 1950.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for January 14, 2015.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to


For Background Information on El Niño, see:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  December 9, 2015.

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