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February 11, 2016


El Niño Report, February 11, 2016


Most computer models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to neutral conditions during the late spring or early summer 2016.  Thereafter, the chance of a La Niña increases into the fall.  While there is both model and physical support for a La Niña, considerable uncertainty remains.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for March 10, 2016.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to


For Background Information on El Niño, see:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  February 11, 2016.

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