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January 15, 2016


El Niño Report, January 14, 2016


A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.


Forecasters are in agreement with the above consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for February 11, 2016.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to


For Background Information on El Niño, see:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  January 14, 2016.

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