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June 11, 2015

Ecuador

El Niño Report, June 11, 2015

 

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions confirm an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.  Nearly all computer models predict El Niño to continue until, at least, the end of 2015.  For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasts slightly favors a strong event.  This prediction, however, may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO predictions.  A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds.  There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the fall of 2015 and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015/2016 winter.

 

El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season and an above normal hurricane seasons in the central and eastern Pacific basins.

 

This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for July 9, 2015.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 

Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  June 11, 2015.

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