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June 5, 2014


El Niño Update, June 5, 2014


Synopsis: The chance of an El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and 80% during the fall and winter.


Over the last month, based on the results of computer models, the chance of an El Niño and its ultimate strength weakened slightly.  Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that an El Niño is likely to emerge.  If we do have an El Niño, the forecasters and most dynamical models predict a moderate-strength event.  However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction.


This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NOAA’s National Weather Service, along with their funded institutions.  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.  Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.  The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for July 10, 2014.  To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, send an e-mail message to


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion (a downloadable PDF or Word file).  June 5, 2014.

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