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November 6, 2014


El Niño Update, November 6, 2014


There is a 58% chance of an El Niño during the months of November/December 2014 and January/February 2015.


Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains El Niño neutral.


Similar to last month, most computer models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015.  However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and other factors have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize.  If an El Niño does emerge, the consensus favors a weak event.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for December 4, 2014.  To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an e-mail message to:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  November 6, 2014.

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