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September 5, 2014


El Niño Update, September  2014


According to the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the chance of an El Niño in the fall/winter of 2014 remains at 60-65%.


During August 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures continued across much of the equatorial Pacific, and most of the El Niño indices warmed during the month.  Subsurface heat content anomalies also increased during the month as above-average subsurface temperatures developed across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.  However, the lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern and near-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific indicate a continuation of El Niño neutral conditions.


Nonetheless, most computer models continue to predict that an El Niño will develop during September-November 2014 and continue into early 2015.  A majority of models and the multi-model averages favor a weak El Niño.  At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter.


This discussion is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next El Niño discussion is scheduled for October 9, 2014.  To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an e-mail message to:


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion (a downloadable PDF or Word file).  September 4, 2014.

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