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July 9, 2015


El Niño Report, July 9, 2015


There is a greater than 90% chance that an El Niño will occur during the winter of 2015-2016 and around an 80% chance (down 5% from last month’s forecast) that it will last into early spring 2016.


Many computer models predict a “strong event”.  The forecaster consensus favors a “significant” El Niño.


El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season and to above-normal hurricane seasons in the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins.


This report is a consolidated effort of the USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).  The next monthly El Niño discussion is scheduled for August 13, 2015.  To receive an email notification when the monthly El Niño discussion is released, send an email message to


Source: Climate Prediction Center.  El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion.  July 9, 2015.

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