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October 8, 2014

United States

Missouri—GAA—Dr. Jim Anderson Predicts Recovery from EMS


Global shrimp production should start to rebound next year, and even reach pre-Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS) levels by 2016, according to data presented at the Global Aquaculture Alliance’s (GAA) Global Outlook for Aquaculture Leadership (GOAL) conference in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.


Jim Anderson of the World Bank presented a range of data collected by his own research and through the GAA’s EMS survey, which closed in September.  EMS, which Anderson termed a “multibillion dollar problem,” caused global farmed shrimp production to decline by 19 percent from 2012 to 2013.


While this year is showing promising signs of recovery, to the tune of an 8 percent increase, the true rebound is still a couple of years away.


“Global economic conditions are expected to be better in 2015,” said Anderson, “and the shrimp market will strengthen.”


Higher feed prices and high risk of disease will continue, however, particularly in China and Southeast Asia.  China, Thailand and Malaysia were hit hard by EMS: In Malaysia, production declined by 50 percent from 2010 to 2013, and Anderson said only a “partial recovery” is expected by 2016.  Thailand’s production declined by 14 percent.


The story is a bit brighter in Latin America, Anderson said. Ecuador is ramping up production, capitalizing on the supply shortages in other regions, and by 2016 its shrimp production will be 28 percent higher than in 2013.  Mexico remains the exception, as EMS has harmed production; its output declined 7.3 percent from 2010 to 2013.


The GAA EMS survey collected data from 70 countries. Global shrimp production data is “scarce,” Anderson said.


Source:  Editor, Sean Murphy ( GOAL 2014: Global Shrimp Market to Improve in 2015.  James Wright (  October 8, 2014.

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